Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 12.621585 14.443846 16.406266 18.673006 21.215208 23.974429 27.191876
2025-06-01 9.880851 12.337973 15.189258 18.727227 22.983062 27.920234 34.063043
2025-06-08 8.339917 11.020695 14.284748 18.523357 23.850599 30.290187 38.625707
2025-06-15 7.311071 10.162847 13.786597 18.684282 25.079367 33.088699 43.812662
2025-06-22 6.672477 9.686995 13.659687 19.213686 26.701560 36.360034 49.658112
2025-06-29 5.892459 8.918957 13.048688 19.010282 27.293179 38.275169 53.792062
2025-07-06 5.022834 7.921635 12.014385 18.109715 26.828075 38.696471 55.884790
2025-07-13 4.684416 7.652117 11.965553 18.561073 28.227751 41.679940 61.565004
2025-07-20 4.361428 7.367984 11.860361 18.902934 29.464348 44.467420 67.071910
2025-07-27 3.978051 6.949313 11.512474 18.844253 30.089677 46.388759 71.405143
2025-08-03 3.602344 6.504215 11.082430 18.617118 30.428847 47.884025 75.156044
2025-08-10 3.320748 6.185468 10.820857 18.622671 31.103820 49.882084 79.706323
2025-08-17 3.096738 5.949641 10.683008 18.827679 32.118947 52.469023 85.308726
2025-08-24 2.851452 5.653523 10.421917 18.811353 32.777355 54.536776 90.210833
2025-08-31 2.604564 5.328557 10.082205 18.631332 33.144237 56.144760 94.439382
2025-09-07 2.437139 5.133056 9.948238 18.784353 34.054901 58.634715 100.134792
2025-09-14 2.343071 5.066904 10.035247 19.319432 35.623489 62.233230 107.723230
2025-09-21 2.149618 4.788555 9.716664 19.113932 35.912701 63.753413 112.005219
2025-09-28 1.881838 4.334480 9.037170 18.209342 34.932674 63.122088 112.722236
2025-10-05 1.810516 4.276233 9.098295 18.662780 36.358599 66.563055 120.303491
2025-10-12 1.730657 4.192176 9.102301 19.006358 37.599254 69.731278 127.533901
2025-10-19 1.611385 4.011476 8.902435 18.947374 38.100897 71.642862 132.692163
2025-10-26 1.484236 3.800557 8.625472 18.719135 38.273288 72.979752 136.900791